Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds possible.

...Southern/Central Arizona...
The region will continue to be peripherally influenced by a lead
trough shifting east-northeastward from the northern/central Rockies
toward the northern Plains, and a moist environment with middle 60s
to lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Scattered semi-repetitive showers
and thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central Arizona at late
morning/midday including near the Phoenix Metro vicinity. This may
limit diurnal destabilization some especially with northward extent,
but the precipitation could abate some as forcing for ascent
modestly weakens this afternoon, before additional late-day
redevelopment/re-intensification occurs within a moist and weakly
capped/destabilizing air mass. Regardless, relatively strong
mid/high-level winds will support some sustained multicells, with
some hail/gusty winds possible with the strongest storms this
afternoon and evening.

..Guyer/Moore.. 10/12/2025